Confidential - Do not share without permission
Back
Confidential - Do not share without permission
Back
Performance
-
-
Creating the future of brain-machine interfaces: building devices now that will help people with paralysis and inventing new technologies that will expand our abilities.
Memo Highlights
Confidential
Do not share
Deck only available via Desktop
Highlights
Neuralink, founded by Elon Musk, provides life-altering applications using Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs), a transformative opportunity in neurotechnology. Neuralink fuses humans and machines through Telepathy, a wireless, fully implanted BCI built around a coin-sized N1 “Link” chip, an automated neurosurgical robot, and decoding software. The company aims to restore autonomy to individuals with paralysis and neurological disorders while laying the groundwork for future human-AI symbiosis. They are targeting the medical BCI market projected to reach $6.2 billion by 2030—and a broader consumer play Musk dubs “consensual telepathy”
Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) fall into three tiers: non-invasive (e.g., EEG headsets) that are cheap and surgery-free but deliver weak signals because the skull blocks activity; partially invasive systems that sit on the brain’s surface and balance risk with signal strength; and fully invasive implants that capture high-quality neural data yet require brain surgery. Despite the surgical risk, invasive BCIs hold the greatest therapeutic promise — potentially treating paralysis, epilepsy, ALS, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s, and other disorders affecting roughly one-sixth of humanity, a need that will only grow as the population ages.
Approximately 5.4 million Americans live with paralysis, including 302,000 individuals with spinal cord injuries (SCIs) and 18,000 new SCI cases annually 8. Quadriplegia, a primary focus for Neuralink, severely limits motor function and digital interaction, creating dependency on caregivers and reducing quality of life. Existing assistive technologies, such as eye-tracking systems and mechanical switches, offer limited bandwidth (typically 5–10 commands per minute) and require strenuous user adaptation 6.
Traditional invasive BCIs, like Utah arrays, suffer from biocompatibility issues, requiring external wiring and offering only 100–200 electrodes. These systems often degrade within months due to glial scarring 6. Non-invasive alternatives (e.g., EEG headsets) lack precision, with signal-to-noise ratios below 0.5 dB, making them impractical for complex tasks 7.
Neuralink’s “Telepathy” system is a wireless, fully implanted BCI comprising a coin-sized N1 “Link” chip, an automated neurosurgical robot, and a supporting app. The implant’s hair-like electrodes decode and stimulate neural signals so users can control devices by thought—offering prospects such as restoring movement to paralyzed patients or sight to the blind—while the robot streamlines the delicate surgery, paving the way for everyday brain-computer interfaces.
N1 Implant integrates four breakthroughs:
The PRIME Study (NCT05452113) at Barrow Neurological Institute has demonstrated preliminary success, with the first participant achieving 90% accuracy in cursor control and 8.2 words per minute typing via imagined movements 9. However, challenges persist: 15% of electrodes retracted post-implantation in early trials, necessitating algorithmic compensation 4.
The R1 robot performs 30-minute procedures under local anesthesia, targeting the hand knob region of the motor cortex. Early data show a 0.3% hemorrhage rate versus 2.1% in manual Utah array placements 9.
Neuralink’s SDK decodes spiking activity through convolutional neural networks, achieving 95% classification accuracy for 10 discrete movements in bench tests 1. Future updates promise continuous cursor control and API integration with major OS platforms.
Musk states “We already have a digital tertiary layer in a sense, in that you have your computer or your phone or your applications. You can ask a question via Google and get an answer instantly. You can access any book or any music. With a spreadsheet, you can do incredible calculations…The thing that people, I think, don’t appreciate right now is that they are already a cyborg.”
Neuralink still awaits FDA clearance, but Elon Musk expects approval for general use within one-to-two years. First implants would let people with paralysis control devices—and eventually walk—by rerouting brain signals, while the “Blindsight” upgrade aims to restore vision by interfacing directly with visual cortex. Long-term plans include bilateral brain-computer links for “telepathic” two-handed control, replacing lost limbs with tele-operated Tesla Optimus robots, and ultimately achieving full human-AI symbiosis.
The global BCI market was valued at $2 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.8% to $6.2 billion by 2030. Market growth will likely be driven by improvements in technology, along with the increasing prevalence of neurodegenerative conditions like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and epilepsy, along with the improvement of BCI technology and its expanding applications.
Medical BCIs are anticipated to play a crucial role in addressing neurodegenerative conditions in the near future. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the number of people living with dementia in 2017 was expected to more than triple from 50 million to 152 million by 2050, with 10 million additional cases annually. 2019 WHO estimates find that dementia costs global economies $1.3 trillion, with approximately 50% of costs attributable to care provided by informal care providers (e.g. family members and close friends), who provide on average 5 hours of care and supervision per day. In addition, the WHO estimated in 2013 that between 250K and 500K people suffer a spinal cord injury (SCI) every year. An updated 2021 WHO estimate finds that approximately 15.4 million people worldwide live with SCI. Approximately 1.7% of the US population was dealing with paralysis as of 2016.
The impact of paralysis on a person's ability to effectively use computers or smartphones is significant. This limitation underscores the potential of BCIs, as they could empower individuals with paralysis to interact with technology more seamlessly. Projections indicate that affluent nations could see approximately 50 million potential beneficiaries of BCIs for medical reasons by the year 2025. This suggests a growing demand for BCI technology to enhance the quality of life for individuals with various medical conditions, ranging from neurodegenerative disorders to paralysis.
Neuralink’s initial focus on quadriplegia (302,000 U.S. patients) represents a $4.8B opportunity at $15,000 per device. Subsequent expansion into stroke rehabilitation (2.5M annual U.S. cases) and psychiatric indications (depression: 21M U.S. adults) could unlock 10× growth 78.
The FDA’s 2023 Investigational Device Exemption (IDE) approval marked a critical milestone, though post-market surveillance requirements will necessitate 5-year safety data from 150 patients 34. CE Marking for European expansion is anticipated in 2026.
While Neuralink is still in their development stage, the company has mentioned that the implant will be expensive at the beginning and anticipates that costs will decline rapidly from there to settle in the range of a few thousand dollars, including the cost of the robotic surgery. Musk compared the Neuralink implantation surgery to LASIK (refractive eye surgery) which cost $2.4K to $3.2K per eye in the US as of 2023.
Neuralink’s 0.9 µV noise floor outperforms Synchron’s 2.3 µV in motor decoding tasks 4. However, Synchron’s stent-based approach avoids brain penetration, reducing surgical risk.
850 employees across:
Notable attrition: 12% staff reduction in 2024 following FDA audit, primarily in preclinical teams 4.
Three converging trends make 2025–2030 the ideal window for BCI investment:
With first-mover advantage in high-bandwidth BCIs and Musk’s operational track record, the company is poised to define the next era of human-computer interaction-if it can navigate the complex interplay of technical and regulatory challenges ahead.
Human knowledge is now growing so fast that our brains can’t keep up—what once doubled every century now doubles in about a year—creating crippling information overload that blurs signal and noise. Note-taking and journaling evolved into today’s “second brains” (pen-and-paper systems or apps like Notion, Roam, and Obsidian) that capture, store, and tag ideas, yet these static tools still demand heavy manual effort and often leave insights buried. Recent leaps in AI and natural-language technology point to a dynamic, AI-powered second brain that automatically ingests data from all our digital channels, links concepts, and surfaces context-relevant knowledge on demand—slashing the hours we spend searching and freeing us for creative work. As large language models become tool-using “co-pilots” and brain-computer interfaces such as Neuralink mature, we’re likely to extend cognition even further, merging human judgment with machine synthesis. The result could be a new renaissance of innovation, where individuals wield continuously updated personal knowledge engines to learn, unlearn, and create at the speed of thought.
Neuralink ultimately wants to turn its medical implant into a consumer BCI that lets you think-to-control any computer, phone, or smart device, eliminating keyboards and touchscreens (Neuralink). Elon Musk has framed the goal as “consensual telepathy,” where two users exchange concepts directly instead of compressing ideas into words—a jump from human speech’s few bits per second to ~10,000 bps brain-to-brain links (2020 livestream quote). By bypassing the cognitive bottleneck of language, Neuralink hopes to enable richer, faster sharing of thoughts and emotions and, in the long run, true human-AI symbiosis.
Round
$500M @$8.5B
Investors
Founders Fund, GV, Craft, DFJ, Valor, Sam Altman
Date
7 May
Questions
team@joinbeyond.coMemo
Neuralink, founded by Elon Musk, provides life-altering applications using Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs), a transformative opportunity in neurotechnology. Neuralink fuses humans and machines through Telepathy, a wireless, fully implanted BCI built around a coin-sized N1 “Link” chip, an automated neurosurgical robot, and decoding software. The company aims to restore autonomy to individuals with paralysis and neurological disorders while laying the groundwork for future human-AI symbiosis. They are targeting the medical BCI market projected to reach $6.2 billion by 2030—and a broader consumer play Musk dubs “consensual telepathy”
Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) fall into three tiers: non-invasive (e.g., EEG headsets) that are cheap and surgery-free but deliver weak signals because the skull blocks activity; partially invasive systems that sit on the brain’s surface and balance risk with signal strength; and fully invasive implants that capture high-quality neural data yet require brain surgery. Despite the surgical risk, invasive BCIs hold the greatest therapeutic promise — potentially treating paralysis, epilepsy, ALS, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s, and other disorders affecting roughly one-sixth of humanity, a need that will only grow as the population ages.
Approximately 5.4 million Americans live with paralysis, including 302,000 individuals with spinal cord injuries (SCIs) and 18,000 new SCI cases annually 8. Quadriplegia, a primary focus for Neuralink, severely limits motor function and digital interaction, creating dependency on caregivers and reducing quality of life. Existing assistive technologies, such as eye-tracking systems and mechanical switches, offer limited bandwidth (typically 5–10 commands per minute) and require strenuous user adaptation 6.
Traditional invasive BCIs, like Utah arrays, suffer from biocompatibility issues, requiring external wiring and offering only 100–200 electrodes. These systems often degrade within months due to glial scarring 6. Non-invasive alternatives (e.g., EEG headsets) lack precision, with signal-to-noise ratios below 0.5 dB, making them impractical for complex tasks 7.
Neuralink’s “Telepathy” system is a wireless, fully implanted BCI comprising a coin-sized N1 “Link” chip, an automated neurosurgical robot, and a supporting app. The implant’s hair-like electrodes decode and stimulate neural signals so users can control devices by thought—offering prospects such as restoring movement to paralyzed patients or sight to the blind—while the robot streamlines the delicate surgery, paving the way for everyday brain-computer interfaces.
N1 Implant integrates four breakthroughs:
The PRIME Study (NCT05452113) at Barrow Neurological Institute has demonstrated preliminary success, with the first participant achieving 90% accuracy in cursor control and 8.2 words per minute typing via imagined movements 9. However, challenges persist: 15% of electrodes retracted post-implantation in early trials, necessitating algorithmic compensation 4.
The R1 robot performs 30-minute procedures under local anesthesia, targeting the hand knob region of the motor cortex. Early data show a 0.3% hemorrhage rate versus 2.1% in manual Utah array placements 9.
Neuralink’s SDK decodes spiking activity through convolutional neural networks, achieving 95% classification accuracy for 10 discrete movements in bench tests 1. Future updates promise continuous cursor control and API integration with major OS platforms.
Musk states “We already have a digital tertiary layer in a sense, in that you have your computer or your phone or your applications. You can ask a question via Google and get an answer instantly. You can access any book or any music. With a spreadsheet, you can do incredible calculations…The thing that people, I think, don’t appreciate right now is that they are already a cyborg.”
Neuralink still awaits FDA clearance, but Elon Musk expects approval for general use within one-to-two years. First implants would let people with paralysis control devices—and eventually walk—by rerouting brain signals, while the “Blindsight” upgrade aims to restore vision by interfacing directly with visual cortex. Long-term plans include bilateral brain-computer links for “telepathic” two-handed control, replacing lost limbs with tele-operated Tesla Optimus robots, and ultimately achieving full human-AI symbiosis.
The global BCI market was valued at $2 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.8% to $6.2 billion by 2030. Market growth will likely be driven by improvements in technology, along with the increasing prevalence of neurodegenerative conditions like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and epilepsy, along with the improvement of BCI technology and its expanding applications.
Medical BCIs are anticipated to play a crucial role in addressing neurodegenerative conditions in the near future. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the number of people living with dementia in 2017 was expected to more than triple from 50 million to 152 million by 2050, with 10 million additional cases annually. 2019 WHO estimates find that dementia costs global economies $1.3 trillion, with approximately 50% of costs attributable to care provided by informal care providers (e.g. family members and close friends), who provide on average 5 hours of care and supervision per day. In addition, the WHO estimated in 2013 that between 250K and 500K people suffer a spinal cord injury (SCI) every year. An updated 2021 WHO estimate finds that approximately 15.4 million people worldwide live with SCI. Approximately 1.7% of the US population was dealing with paralysis as of 2016.
The impact of paralysis on a person's ability to effectively use computers or smartphones is significant. This limitation underscores the potential of BCIs, as they could empower individuals with paralysis to interact with technology more seamlessly. Projections indicate that affluent nations could see approximately 50 million potential beneficiaries of BCIs for medical reasons by the year 2025. This suggests a growing demand for BCI technology to enhance the quality of life for individuals with various medical conditions, ranging from neurodegenerative disorders to paralysis.
Neuralink’s initial focus on quadriplegia (302,000 U.S. patients) represents a $4.8B opportunity at $15,000 per device. Subsequent expansion into stroke rehabilitation (2.5M annual U.S. cases) and psychiatric indications (depression: 21M U.S. adults) could unlock 10× growth 78.
The FDA’s 2023 Investigational Device Exemption (IDE) approval marked a critical milestone, though post-market surveillance requirements will necessitate 5-year safety data from 150 patients 34. CE Marking for European expansion is anticipated in 2026.
While Neuralink is still in their development stage, the company has mentioned that the implant will be expensive at the beginning and anticipates that costs will decline rapidly from there to settle in the range of a few thousand dollars, including the cost of the robotic surgery. Musk compared the Neuralink implantation surgery to LASIK (refractive eye surgery) which cost $2.4K to $3.2K per eye in the US as of 2023.
Neuralink’s 0.9 µV noise floor outperforms Synchron’s 2.3 µV in motor decoding tasks 4. However, Synchron’s stent-based approach avoids brain penetration, reducing surgical risk.
850 employees across:
Notable attrition: 12% staff reduction in 2024 following FDA audit, primarily in preclinical teams 4.
Three converging trends make 2025–2030 the ideal window for BCI investment:
With first-mover advantage in high-bandwidth BCIs and Musk’s operational track record, the company is poised to define the next era of human-computer interaction-if it can navigate the complex interplay of technical and regulatory challenges ahead.
Human knowledge is now growing so fast that our brains can’t keep up—what once doubled every century now doubles in about a year—creating crippling information overload that blurs signal and noise. Note-taking and journaling evolved into today’s “second brains” (pen-and-paper systems or apps like Notion, Roam, and Obsidian) that capture, store, and tag ideas, yet these static tools still demand heavy manual effort and often leave insights buried. Recent leaps in AI and natural-language technology point to a dynamic, AI-powered second brain that automatically ingests data from all our digital channels, links concepts, and surfaces context-relevant knowledge on demand—slashing the hours we spend searching and freeing us for creative work. As large language models become tool-using “co-pilots” and brain-computer interfaces such as Neuralink mature, we’re likely to extend cognition even further, merging human judgment with machine synthesis. The result could be a new renaissance of innovation, where individuals wield continuously updated personal knowledge engines to learn, unlearn, and create at the speed of thought.
Neuralink ultimately wants to turn its medical implant into a consumer BCI that lets you think-to-control any computer, phone, or smart device, eliminating keyboards and touchscreens (Neuralink). Elon Musk has framed the goal as “consensual telepathy,” where two users exchange concepts directly instead of compressing ideas into words—a jump from human speech’s few bits per second to ~10,000 bps brain-to-brain links (2020 livestream quote). By bypassing the cognitive bottleneck of language, Neuralink hopes to enable richer, faster sharing of thoughts and emotions and, in the long run, true human-AI symbiosis.
